To Believe or Not to Believe

Will more people affiliate with Atheism or Agnosticism in the 2021 census for England and Wales?

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Description

Bet Description

Betfair-Metaphysical.com lets you play the 2021 Census in England and Wales (E&W).  All bets relate to the ‘What is Your Religion?’ question on the census. A census happens every ten years and Census Day 2021 is Sunday March 21, 2021. The Census is run by the Office for National Statistics and is administered to 20 million households. More details can be found at https://census.gov.uk/.

To believe or not to believe, that is the question. There are a variety of categories relevant to non-belief.  In previous censuses people have affiliated with the following categories: Agnostic, Atheist, Free Thinker, Humanist, Internationalist Rationalist, Realist and Secularist as well as the mother of all none belief’s ‘None/No Religion’.  The latter with over seven million affiliations is way out in the lead. The race between Atheism and Agnosticism is much closer.  Will more people affiliate with Atheism or Agnosticism in the 2021 census for England and Wales?

Decision Logic

This bet will be resolved upon publication by the Office for National Statistics or the British Religion in Numbers Department of the University of Manchester, of analysis which shows a comparison between these affiliations on a comparable basis such as the BRIN paper:

Religious Census 2011 – What happened to the Christians? (Part II) | British Religion in Numbers

In the event of any dispute or non-publication, Betfiar-Metaphysical will seek clarification from BRIN.

This bet pits the specific categories of Atheism and Agnosticism against each other. Other non-beliefs are ignored. Only those who are recorded in these two categories will be counted.